School Improvement in Maryland

Sample Item
Selected Response Item for Grade 3

Standard 5.0 Knowledge of Probability

Topic B. Theoretical Probability

Indicator 1. Identify the probability of one simple event

Objective a. Describe the probability of an event using words

Assessment limit: Use probability terms of more (or most) likely, less (or least) likely, or equally likely

Joe tossed a penny and it lands on 'heads.' Which statement is correct about his next coin toss?

  1. The penny is more likely to land 'heads.'
  2. The penny is equally likely to land 'heads' or 'tails.'
  3. The penny is more likely to land 'tails.'
  4. The penny must land on 'tails.'

Correct Answer
B. The penny is equally likely to land 'heads' or 'tails.'
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