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Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.2 The student will apply the basic concepts of statistics and probability to predict possible outcomes of real-world situations.

Indicator 3.2.1 The student will make informed decisions and predictions based upon the results of simulations and data from research.

Extended Constructed Response (ECR) Item - Released in 2001

A movie producer is considering two different endings for a movie. To decide which ending is better, the producer randomly selected two groups of people to watch each ending. There were 200 people in each group. The two groups rated the movie endings on a scale of 1 to 100. The box-and-whisker plots below show a summary of their results.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • Which ending had a higher median rating? Use mathematics to justify your answer.
  • Which ending had a wider range of ratings? Use mathematics to justify your answer.
  • Based on the data shown in the box-and-whisker plots, the movie producer decided that the first ending was better than the second ending. Is this a valid conclusion to make from the data given? Use mathematics to justify your answer.

The following 8 Anchor Papers represent a range of score points and are used in conjunction with the rubrics to assess student responses.

Anchor Paper #1

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #1: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. The student's analysis of the box-and-whisker plot correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. Justification for this solution is not provided. The student incorrectly identifies the second ending as the ending with the wider range; an attempt to justify this solution is invalid ("...there is more data in Q1-Q3 in the second ending then the first.") In addition, the student does not provide any appropriate justification for disagreeing with the producer's conclusion. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #2

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #2: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. The student's analysis of the box-and-whisker plot correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. The student also correctly identifies the first ending as having the wider range. However, justification is not provided for either solution. ("From the data given the movie producer was justified in making that conclusion" is not a justification for agreeing with the movie producer.) This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #3

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #3: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. Also correct is the student's choice of the first ending as having the wider range. There is no justification provided for either solution. The student justifies the producer's conclusion by comparing the maximum values of the endings {"The highest ratings for the first ending was 98 which is only two points away from 100 (the highest). The highest rating for the second ending was 91."}. Although this assessment is plausible, simply comparing the maximum values does not provide a complete justification. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #4

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #4: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. However, the statement ("because it is closer to 100") is synonymous with "higher" and, therefore, does not justify the choice. The student's choice of the first ending as having the wider range is correct. The justification ("...because it goes from 54-98") is plausible but is not complete since it does not provide a comparison with the second ending's range. The student justifies the first ending as the better one by comparing the minimum values of the endings ("...the firsts lowest is high then the second"). Although this is correct, simply comparing the minimum values does not provide a complete justification. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #5

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #5: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution. The student's analysis of the box-and-whisker plot correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. The justification for this solution is fully developed ("...the median was 78 compared to the first endings 72"). The student's choice of the first ending as having the wider range is correct; however, the justification is not complete because it does not provide a comparison with the second ending's range ("...the minimum was 52 and the maximum 96"). The student disagrees with the producer's conclusion and provides some appropriate justification using the medians as a measure of which ending is better ("...the median score was higher for the first ending"). Overall, this response demonstrates a clear understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #6

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #6: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution. The student correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median and provides a complete justification ("...the second ending had a median of 78 and the first ending had a median of 72..."). The student's choice of the first ending as having the wider range is correct; however, justification for this solution is not provided. The student justifies the second ending as the better one by interpreting the significance of the position of the median and third quartile ("...second ending had a median of 78 and the first ending had a median of 72 and a third quartile of 73...So half the ratings for the second ending were 78 or better and one fourth of the first endings ratings were 73 or better"). This justification is fully developed and supports the solution. This response demonstrates a clear understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #7

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #7: Rubric Score 4

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution within the context of the problem. The student correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. The justification for this solution is clearly presented ("The first ending only has a median of 72, while the second one only has 78."). Also correct is the student's choice of the second ending as the one with the wider range. The student provides a complete justification for this solution ("It ranges from 54 to 96, a range of 42, while the other ending has a range of 38."). The student justifies the second ending as better by comparing the positions of the median and the third quartile. ("Because the median is higher in the 2nd ending than Quartile 3 for the first ending, half the 2nd ending ratings are at or more than 78..."). This justification is logically sound, clearly presented, and supports the solution. This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #8

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #8: Rubric Score 4

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution within the context of the problem. The student's analysis of the box-and-whisker plot correctly identifies the second ending as having the higher median. The justification for this solution is fully developed ("I chose the second ending because the median is 78 and the first ending's median rating is 71."). The student's correct choice of the first ending as having the wider range is also fully justified ("The first ending had the wider range because its range went from 54 to 98. Compared to the second ending range of ratings which was from 52 to 90"). The student disagrees with the producer's conclusion and provides appropriate justification by using the medians and the ranges as measures of which ending is better. Overall, this response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Extended Constructed Response (ECR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 4

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is generally well developed, feasible, and supports the solution. The response demonstrates a clear understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy that may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no application of a reasonable strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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