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Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.2 The student will apply the basic concepts of statistics and probability to predict possible outcomes of real-world situations.

Indicator 3.2.2 The student will interpret data and/or make predictions by finding and using a line of best fit and by using a given curve of best fit.

Assessment Limits:

  • Items should include a definition of the data and what it represents.
  • Data will be given when a line of best fit is required.
  • Equation or graph will be given when a curve of best fit is required.

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Item - Released in 2001

The table below shows the distances, in miles, and the lowest-priced airfares, in dollars, of flights from Baltimore to various destinations.

The data from the table is graphed on the scatter plot below.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • Write an equation for a line of best fit that can represent the relationship between the distance (d) traveled and the lowest-priced airfare (f).
  • Graph the equation for your line of best fit on a scatter plot.
  • According to your equation, what is the cost of a plane ticket to Orlando, which is 790 miles from Baltimore? Use mathematics to justify your answer.

The following 11 Sample Student Responses represent a range of score points.

Sample Student Response #1

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #1: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student gives an equation for the line of best fit that is within an acceptable range for the data given. The writer uses alternate variables (x) and (y) but does not define those variables. The graph of the equation is correct. A solution of $182.00 for the cost of an airplane ticket from Baltimore to Orlando, though feasible, is an estimate from the student's own line rather than a calculation using the equation. There is no justification. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #2

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #2: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The student gives an appropriate equation for the line of best fit that is within an acceptable range for the data given. The writer uses alternate variables (x) and (y). The line of best fit is graphed accurately. The student's equation is used to calculate a correct cost of the airplane ticket. The justification for this answer ("I then used Trace and saw that 176.48 really was at 790 miles") is logically sound, fully developed, and supports the solution. Although the student has not redefined the variables from those given in the problem, this response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #3

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #3: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are essentially correct. The equation is appropriate, but the variables have not been redefined from those given in the problem. The graph of the line of best fit is slightly inaccurate with the y-intercept below the 100.636 given in the student's equation. The student's equation is used to calculate a correct solution of $176.48 for the cost of the airplane ticket. However, there is no justification. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #4

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #4: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. The representations are incomplete. The student does not provide an equation for the line of best fit. The student has made a reasonable attempt at graphing a line of best fit. A solution of "about 180 dollars" for a ticket from Baltimore to Orlando is an estimate from the student's own line rather than a calculation using an equation. There is no justification. This response indicates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #5

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Score for Sample Student Response #5: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The representations are correct; both the equation for a line of best fit and the graph of the equation are within an acceptable range for the data given. The solution for the cost of the airplane ticket represents a correct application of the student's equation; however, an explanation for the solution is provided rather than a justification: "you just plug in 790 for d and you get 179." This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #6

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #6: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The student uses a graphing calculator to find an appropriate equation for the line of best fit using alternate variables (x) and (y). The graph of the equation is accurate. The solution for the cost of the airplane ticket, $179.64, represents a correct application of the student's equation. The justification is logically sound and supports the solution: "Using the graph, $179.64 seems more accurate." The student has not redefined the variables from those given in the problem; however, this response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #7

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #7: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The equation is present but is only fundamentally correct, consisting of an algebraic expression that is not set equal to the airfare (f) as required in the problem. The alternate variable (x) is not defined. The graph of the equation is within an acceptable range for the data given. The solution of $177.14 for the cost of an airplane ticket from Baltimore to Orlando represents a correct application of the student's equation; however, an explanation is provided rather than a justification: "…first entering the equation then by pressing 2nd, graph. Then finally I typed in 790 to get my answer." This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #8

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #8: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. The representations are incomplete. The student has made a reasonable attempt at graphing a line of best fit; however, the slope and the y-intercept are somewhat inaccurate for the data given and are not correctly expressed in the student's attempted equation (d+115f). An estimate of $180.00 for the cost of the airplane ticket is feasible, but the student's equation is not used to arrive at the solution. There is no justification. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #9

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #9: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The representations are essentially correct. The equation is within an acceptable range for the data given, but the graph of the line of best fit is slightly inaccurate; the y-intercept is below the 100 given in the equation. The solution for the cost of the airplane ticket represents a correct application of the student's equation; however, the student provides an explanation for the solution rather than a justification: "I got this by substituting 790 into the equation." This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #10

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #10: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The student finds an equation for the line of best fit that is within an acceptable range for the data given. The writer uses the alternate variables (x) and (y). The graph of the equation is correct. The solution of $176.57 for the cost of the airplane ticket represents a correct application of the student's equation. The student's use of the trace function to come up with $176.57 justifies the accuracy of the student's solution: "…by making the same scatter plot and line of best fit and went to 790 on the x-axis." The student has not redefined the variables from those given in the problem; however, this response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #11

image of student response

Score for Sample Student Response #11: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The representations are incomplete. The student provides an equation that is within an acceptable range for the data given, but does not graph the line of best fit. The solution for the cost of the airplane ticket represents a correct application of the student's equation; however, there is no justification. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Additional Resources

Anchor Papers used in scoring

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may be incomplete or undeveloped. It may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no attempt to apply a reasonable strategy or applies an inappropriate strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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Resources for 3.2.2:
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