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Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.1 The student will collect, organize, analyze, and present data.

Indicator 3.1.2 The student will use the measures of central tendency and/or variability to make informed conclusions.

Assessment Limits:

  • Measures of central tendency include mean, median, and mode.
  • Measures of variability include range, interquartile range, and quartiles.
  • Data may be displayed in a variety of representations which may include: frequency tables, box and whisker plots, and other displays.

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Item - Released in 2003

Amar compared the ages of the U.S. presidents who served between 1789 and 1845 at their first inaugurations to the ages of the presidents who served between 1945 and 2000 at their first inaugurations, as shown below.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • What are the mean and median for each group of U.S. presidents?
  • Amar wanted to use this data to show that the ages of the U.S. presidents at their first inaugurations have decreased between 1789 and 2000. How could Amar use this data to support his conclusion?
  • Do you think the data provides Amar with support strong enough to make his conclusion valid? Use mathematics to justify your answer.

The following 9 Anchor Papers represent a range of score points and are used in conjunction with the rubrics to assess student responses.

Anchor Paper #1

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #1: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The correct mean and median are given for the presidents who served between 1789 and 1845. However, the mean and median for the presidents who served between 1945 and 2000 are incorrect. No attempt is made to answer the remainder of the question. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #2

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #2: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. Both the means and medians are correct. The student incorrectly states that the median, rather than the mean, should be used to justify Sam's conclusion. Although the student correctly states that the data does not provide Sam with support strong enough to make his conclusion valid, no relevant justification is given. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #3

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #3: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. Both means are correct. The medians are incorrect. The student gives only the two middle numbers for each set of data and does not average the numbers in order to find the medians. The student correctly states that the means could be used to support Sam's conclusion "in the mean age gets lower (decreases) through the years to be president and that supports his conclusion." No attempt is made to answer the last part of the question. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #4

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #4: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. Both the means and the medians are correct. The student correctly states that the means could be used to support Sam's conclusion "because the age has gone down 2 years on average." The student incorrectly tries to justify that the data provides support strong enough to make Sam's conclusion valid ("is enough to support his conclusion because it clearly shows that on average the ages of presidents have gone down"). Although the mean has decreased, the median has increased, which would not offer strong support for Sam's conclusion. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #5

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #5: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. All four measures of central tendency are correct. The mean is correctly identified as supporting Sam's conclusion. ("He would have to use the mean because it shows the averages and it would show the decrease between the 1789 and 1945 inaugurations.") The student incorrectly tries to justify that the data is strong enough to meske the conclusion valid. ("Yes, because it shows a decrease.") Even though the means do show a decrease, the medians show an increase and, therefore, would not offer support strong enough to make Sam's conclusion valid. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #6

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #6: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. Both the mean and the median are correct for the presidents who served between 1789 and 1845. The mean is correct for the presidents who served between 1945 and 2000, but the median is incorrect. The correct answer for the median is 58 not "58.5." The student correctly chooses the mean as supporting the conclusion ("the mean for the first set was 58.1 and the mean for the second set was 56.8"). Clearly presented justification is given to show that the data does not provide support strong enough to make the conclusion valid. ("No because even though the mean shows a decrease the median does not.") This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #7

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #7: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. All four measures of central tendency are correct. The answers for the means have been appropriately rounded from "58.1" to "58" and from "56.8" to "57." The mean is correctly identified as supporting the conclusion. ("Sam should use the mean to show that the ages of presidents have decreased from 1789 to 2000 because the mean lessens by 1 year when looking at the difference between 1789 - 1845 and 1945 - 2000.") The student correctly states that the data does not provide strong enough support to make the conclusion valid. Justification that is logically sound and clearly presented also is given ("the mean only lowers itself by 1 year between 1789 - 1845 and 1945 - 2000, while the median raises itself by one"). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #8

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #8: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. Both the means and the medians are correct. The mean is correctly identified as supporting the conclusion. ("He would use the mean, because the mean of presidents who served between 1948 and 2000 is lower than that of the presidents who served between 1789 and 1845.") The student correctly states that the data does not provide strong enough support to make the conclusion valid. A logically sound justification is given to support the solution. ("This data does not provide Sam with strong enough support, because the median disproves his conclusion.") This statement indicates that the median is actually lower for the presidents who served between 1789 and 1845. This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #9

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #9: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. All four measures of central tendency are correct. The student clearly indicates that in order for Sam to support his conclusion he should use the means. ("In 1789 and 1845 the mean was 58.1, and the data decreased by 1945 and 2000.") Logically sound justification is presented to show that the data does not offer support strong enough to make Sam's conclusion valid (''the median did not follow what he wanted to prove. The median was greater in 2000, than in 1789"). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may be incomplete or undeveloped. It may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no attempt to apply a reasonable strategy or applies an inappropriate strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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Resources for 3.1.2:
Skill Statements | PUBLIC RELEASE ITEMS | Lesson Plans |