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Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.2 The student will apply the basic concepts of statistics and probability to predict possible outcomes of real-world situations.

Indicator 3.2.2 The student will interpret data and/or make predictions by finding and using a line of best fit and by using a given curve of best fit.

Assessment Limits:

  • Items should include a definition of the data and what it represents.
  • Data will be given when a line of best fit is required.
  • Equation or graph will be given when a curve of best fit is required.

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Item - Released in 2004

Students in a nutrition class decide to sell orange juice at their school's next sports event. To determine the price, the students record prices of orange juice from various stores in their city. The table below shows the price of different-sized bottles of juice.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • Write an equation for a line of best fit. (If you choose to draw a graph, use the grid provided in the Answer Book.)
  • What is the slope of your equation? What does the slope mean in the context of this problem?
  • The students are selling 8-ounce bottles of orange juice. According to your line of best fit, what is the price of an 8-ounce bottle of juice? Use mathematics to explain how you determined your answer. Use words, symbols, or both in your explanation.

The following 16 Sample Student Responses represent a range of score points.

Sample Student Response #1

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Score for Sample Student Response #1: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. An equation (y = .10x + .75) is given for the line of best fit. Although the student does not specifically state the slope, the meaning of slope (each ounce costs about $.10) is correct. The price of a bottle of juice ($.76) is incorrect, and no explanation is supplied. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #2

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Score for Sample Student Response #2: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. Because the student provides an expression, instead of an equation, the representation is not complete. The slope is correct; however, the meaning of slope is incorrect (for every .6 ounces it costs $.1). The price of a bottle of juice ($1.40) is correct, and the explanation is complete (by plugging in 8 ounces for x, then solving the equation). This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #3

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Score for Sample Student Response #3: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. An appropriate equation (y=.09x + .60) is given for the line of best fit. The answer for slope contains an error; the student includes the variable "x." The meaning of slope is incorrect. The price of a bottle of juice is incorrect, and the attempted explanation shows serious flaws in reasoning. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #1.


Sample Student Response #4

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Score for Sample Student Response #4: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. An appropriate equation (y=.1x + .6) is given for the line of best fit. Although the student does not specifically define the variables, this is considered a minor error. The slope and the meaning of slope (for every ounce of orange juice, the price goes up $0.10) are both correct. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.40) is correct. The explanation is logically sound (found this by plugging 8 ounces in for x). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #7.


Sample Student Response #5

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Score for Sample Student Response #5: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. An appropriate equation (y = .1x + .6) is provided for the line of best fit. Both the slope and the meaning of slope are incorrect. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.40) is given, and the explanation is clearly presented and supports the solution (substituting 8 for x in the equation and solving). This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #6

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Score for Sample Student Response #6: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. An appropriate equation (y=0.1x + 0.6) is given for the line of best fit. The slope and the meaning of slope (how much each extra ounce will cost) are correct. The price of a bottle of juice is correct ($1.40). The explanation is clearly presented (taking my original equation and substituting 8 for x). The definition of the variables (x stood for how many ounces; the price {y}) is given in the response to the last part of the question. This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #8.


Sample Student Response #7

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Score for Sample Student Response #7: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. No equation is given for the line of best fit. Because the slope (.80/8) would be a correct answer using the first two data points from the table, the student shows some relevant knowledge. The meaning of slope is incorrect, but demonstrates some relevant understanding (how much it increased by the size of the bottle). The price of a bottle of juice is incorrect, and the explanation does not support the solution. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #8

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Score for Sample Student Response #8: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. An appropriate equation is given for the line of best fit. The omission of variable definitions is a minor error. The slope and the meaning of slope (how much money you add for each ounce you increase) are correct. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.40) is correct. The explanation is logically sound and supports the solution (entered my equation in the y=part of my calculator; went to the table and scrolled down to where x equaled 8). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #7.


Sample Student Response #9

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Score for Sample Student Response #9: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. An appropriate equation (y=.099x + .60) is given for the line of best fit. While the slope is correct, the meaning of slope is incorrect. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.392) is correct, and the explanation, substituting 8 for x in the equation and solving, is clearly presented. This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #10

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Score for Sample Student Response #10: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. An appropriate equation (y=.099x + .60) is given for the line of best fit. The slope and the meaning of slope (the cost per ounce in the bottle) are correct. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.40) is correct, and the explanation is logically sound (by plugging in 8 ounces in for x). Some definition of the variables is provided in the statement (x represents the bottle size in ounces); the fact that y is not specifically defined is a minor error. This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #7.


Sample Student Response #11

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Score for Sample Student Response #11: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. No equation is given for the line of best fit. No slope is provided. The meaning of slope is incomplete; the student does not include how much the cost is rising per ounce. An attempt is made to find a pattern from the given table in order to determine the price of a bottle of juice. Some relevant knowledge is given in the statement (price of the 8 ounce bottle should be 1.39 because you subtract .8 from 2.19; because from 8 oz to 16 oz there are 8 oz; from 16 oz to 24 oz there are 8 oz; the difference in the price is .8; subtract .8). This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #12

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Score for Sample Student Response #12: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. An appropriate equation (y=.1x + .59) is given for the line of best fit. The omission of variable definitions is a minor error. The slope and the meaning of slope (the price increment is 10 cents per ounce) are both correct. The price of a bottle of juice is correct, and the explanation, substituting 8 for x in the equation, is clearly presented. This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #7.


Sample Student Response #13

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Score for Sample Student Response #13: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. An appropriate equation (y=.099x + .602) is given for the line of best fit. While the slope is correct, the meaning of slope is incorrect. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.39) is correct, and the explanation is clearly presented (got $1.39 by replacing x with 8). This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #14

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Score for Sample Student Response #14: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. An appropriate equation (y=.1x + .60) is given for the line of best fit. Although the variables are not specifically defined, this is a minor error. The slope and the meaning of slope (the amount of money that increases as the bottle size increases an ounce) are both correct. The price for a bottle of juice ($1.40) is correct. The explanation is logically sound and supports the solution (plugged in 8 for x). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #7.


Sample Student Response #15

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Score for Sample Student Response #15: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little application of a reasonable strategy. No equation is given for the line of best fit. No slope is provided. The student supplies some relevant information about the meaning of slope (for every ounce of difference, there is a change of .10 cents) which is used to explain how the student determines an answer ($1.39) for the price of a bottle of juice. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Sample Student Response #16

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Score for Sample Student Response #16: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. An appropriate equation (y=.1x + .6) is given for the line of best fit. While the slope is correct, the meaning of slope is incomplete. The student does not indicate that the slope represents the cost per ounce of orange juice. The price of a bottle of juice ($1.40) is correct, and the explanation is clearly presented (by plugging in the 8 for x and solving out the problem). This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem. Compare to Anchor Paper #6.


Additional Resources

Anchor Papers used in scoring

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may be incomplete or undeveloped. It may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no attempt to apply a reasonable strategy or applies an inappropriate strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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Resources for 3.2.2:
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