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Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.1 The student will collect, organize, analyze, and present data.

Indicator 3.1.1 The student will design and/or conduct an investigation that uses statistical methods to analyze data and communicate results.

Assessment Limits:

  • The student will design investigations stating how data will be collected and justify the method.
  • Types of investigations may include: simple random sampling, representative sampling, and probability simulations.
  • Probability simulations may include the use of spinners, number cubes, or random number generators.
  • In simple random sampling each member of the population is equally likely to be chosen and the members of the sample are chosen independently of each other. Sample size will be given for these investigations.

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Item - Released in 2006

A cereal company awards a prize to anyone who collects all 5 different game pieces. Each game piece has an equal chance of being placed in a box of cereal. Each box of cereal contains only 1 game piece.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • Design a simulation of at least 30 trials that can be used to estimate how many boxes of cereal a person needs to buy to collect all 5 different game pieces. Describe how to collect and interpret the data so that you have confidence in the estimation.

The following 8 Anchor Papers represent a range of score points and are used in conjunction with the rubrics to assess student responses.

Anchor Paper #1

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #1: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The student designs a simulation with five marbles in a bag, each representing a different game piece. However, instead of conducting thirty trials, with each trial lasting until every piece is drawn at least once, the student simply draws a marble thirty times. Although the student recognizes that in this example it took 14 draws to get all five game pieces, there is a serious misunderstanding of how long one trial should last and of how many trials should be performed. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #2

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #2: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The student begins describing a simulation using random numbers but does not indicate what numbers are being used, what they represent, or how they are generated. However, some correct information is given about how to collect and interpret the data. Thirty trials are performed and each trial lasts until every piece is generated at least once. The student also describes using the mode to estimate how many boxes of cereal you would need to buy (I would see the most frequent amount of times it took to get all the pieces). The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #3

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #3: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The student designs a simulation using a spinner with five equal sections. The student describes each trial lasting for thirty spins instead of until each section has been landed on at least once (spin it 30 times for each trial). This is a serious flaw in reasoning. Because of this misunderstanding the interpretation of the data is incorrect. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #4

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #4: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student designs a simulation using a random number generator, with two numbers representing each game piece. It is unclear whether there is an understanding that thirty trials, with each trial lasting until every piece has been generated at least once, need to be performed. The mode is used to interpret the data (which number of boxes had to be bought the most). The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #5

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #5: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student designs a simulation using a spinner with five equal sections, with each section representing a different game piece. The student understands that each trial lasts until each game piece is selected and that thirty trials should be conducted. The student begins the interpretation of the data but it is not fully developed (you could count how many spins it took to get all 5 toys and place those results in a table). The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #6

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #6: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student designs a simulation using five numbers in a bag, with each number representing a different game piece. The student understands how long each trial should last (untill you get 1 through 5) and that 30 trials should be conducted, but the student does not include replacing the numbers after each time a number is picked out of the bag. Although the student gives some interpretation by writing down (how many times it took to get all 5) and recording this in a frequency table, the interpretation is incomplete because no measure of central tendency is used. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #7

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #7: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. A simulation is designed using a random number generator and integers 0-4. The student understands that each trial should last until each of the numbers is generated (continue to hit the Rand Int (0,4) button until all 5 distinctive numbers will appear) and that thirty trials should be performed. The student records the number of integers generated in each trial and correctly interprets the data by finding the mean (adding the recorded data from each trial and dividing that sum by 30). The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #8

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #8: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. A simulation is designed (by first getting 5 different color, same size slips of paper; place each slip into a hat). The student understands that each trial should last (until you get one of each color), and that thirty trials should be conducted. The student describes calculating the mean (add up the amount of tries it took to get all the colors for each trial and divide the total by 30), although the term "average" is used to describe the number of (cereal boxes it will take to recieve every game piece). The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may be incomplete or undeveloped. It may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no attempt to apply a reasonable strategy or applies an inappropriate strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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Resources for 3.1.1:
Skill Statements | PUBLIC RELEASE ITEMS | Lesson Plans |