School Improvement in Maryland
Public Release Item Scoring Information Return

Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.1 The student will collect, organize, analyze, and present data.

Indicator 3.1.1 The student will design and/or conduct an investigation that uses statistical methods to analyze data and communicate results.

Assessment Limits:

  • The student will design investigations stating how data will be collected and justify the method.
  • Types of investigations may include: simple random sampling, representative sampling, and probability simulations.
  • Probability simulations may include the use of spinners, number cubes, or random number generators.
  • In simple random sampling each member of the population is equally likely to be chosen and the members of the sample are chosen independently of each other. Sample size will be given for these investigations.

Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Item - Released in 2007

The principal will survey 100 students to determine which elective courses to offer next year. The principal will use one of the methods below.

Method A: Survey the first 100 students who enter the cafeteria on a randomly selected day.

Method B: Have 25 teachers each randomly select 4 eleventh-grade students to be surveyed.

Method C: Assign each student a number. Use a random number generator to generate 100 numbers. Survey those students whose numbers are generated.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • Which method will provide the principal with a simple random sample of the student population? Use principles of simple random sampling to justify your answer.
  • Use principles of simple random sampling to justify why each of the other two methods does not provide a simple random sample.

The following 9 Anchor Papers represent a range of score points and are used in conjunction with the rubrics to assess student responses.

Anchor Paper #1

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #1: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The student incorrectly chooses Method A as providing a simple random sample and gives no correct justification for this answer. The justification for why Method B will not provide a simple random sample is correct (you'd only have 11th graders). The justification for why Method C will not provide a simple random sample is incorrect and shows a flaw in reasoning. The student states that (Method C wouldn't work because you would have to make sure that every student got a number) which is actually a reason why Method C would provide a simple random sample. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #2

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #2: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample but gives no valid justification. The justification for why Method A does not provide a simple random sample is incorrect. Method A does not give a simple random sample because only the first 100 students to enter the cafeteria are included, not because (many students enter the cafeteria with friends who like or would want to take the same elective). The justification for why Method B will not provide a simple random sample is correct (you are only surveying eleventh graders). The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #3

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #3: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response indicates little attempt to apply a reasonable strategy. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample and gives a partial justification (that gives every person a chance not just some people). No justification is given for why Methods A and B will not give simple random samples. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #4

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #4: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample but a justification addressing equal chance and independence is missing. The justification for why Method A will not provide a simple random sample is correct (that will limit the principal to one group of student in one cafeteria period). A correct justification is also given for why Method B will not give a simple random sample (the principal will be limited to only eleventh graders with certain teachers). The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #5

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #5: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample and gives a complete justification (each student is equaly likely to be picked and it will be chosen independently). No justification is given for why Methods A and B will not provide simple random samples. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #6

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #6: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample and gives a complete justification (every student of the population will have an equal opportunity to be chosen; the population will be chosen independently of one another). The justification for why Method A will not provide a simple random sample is plausible but not well developed (not every student of the population will have an equal opportunity to be chosen; the students will be chosen dependently on one another). The justification needs to specifically address what about Method A keeps it from giving every student an equal chance. Similarly, the justification for why Method B will not provide a simple random sample (not every student of the population will have an equal opportunity to be chosen) is not well developed and needs to specifically address why Method B does not provide every student an equal chance. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #7

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #7: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample and gives a partial justification (this will randomly choose everybody). Independence is not addressed. The justification for why Method A will not provide a simple random sample is correct (some kids get to school early every day). This indicates that early students go to the cafeteria to wait for school to start and they would always be the first 100 to enter the cafeteria, excluding those students who do not arrive at school early. Correct justification is also given for why Method B will not give a simple random sample (it's only for eleventh graders). The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #8

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #8: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample and gives a fully developed justification (each member of the population is equally likely to be chosen, and they are picked independently). The justification for why Method A will not provide a simple random sample is correct (not everyone eats in the cafeteria and some people may be absent). A correct justification is also given for why Method B will not provide a simple random sample (students of other teachers that weren't chosen, won't have a chance to be surveyed). The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #9

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #9: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The student correctly chooses Method C as providing a simple random sample and gives a fully developed justification (everyone will have an equally likely chance to be chosen to survey and each student will be chosen independently). The justification for why Method A will not provide a simple random sample is correct (a student may not be able to get to the cafeteria that day or may be absent. So the students do not have an equally likely chance to be chosen). A correct justification is also given for why Method B will not provide a simple random sample (only the eleventh grade students get to be offered to be surveyed and 9th and 10th graders won't get a chance to say their oppinion). The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Brief Constructed Response (BCR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may be incomplete or undeveloped. It may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no attempt to apply a reasonable strategy or applies an inappropriate strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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Resources for 3.1.1:
Skill Statements | PUBLIC RELEASE ITEMS | Lesson Plans |