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Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability

Expectation 3.2 The student will apply the basic concepts of statistics and probability to predict possible outcomes of real-world situations.

Indicator 3.2.2 The student will interpret data and/or make predictions by finding and using a line of best fit and by using a given curve of best fit.

Assessment Limits:

  • Items should include a definition of the data and what it represents.
  • Data will be given when a line of best fit is required.
  • Equation or graph will be given when a curve of best fit is required.

Extended Constructed Response (ECR) Item - Released in 2007

The table below shows the age and the value of a computer.

Complete the following in the Answer Book:

  • Write an equation for a line of best fit. (If you choose to draw a graph to help you write the equation, use the grid provided in the Answer Book.)
  • What is the slope of your equation? What does the slope represent in the context of this problem?
  • What is the age of the computer when its value is $300? Use mathematics to explain how you determined your answer. Use words, symbols, or both in your explanation.
  • Will your equation remain a good model to predict the value of a computer when it is 6 years old? Use mathematics to justify your answer.

The following 8 Anchor Papers represent a range of score points and are used in conjunction with the rubrics to assess student responses.

Anchor Paper #1

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #1: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response demonstrates little application of a reasonable strategy. The representation in the form of an equation is correct (y= -201x+809). The student has not responded to the second, third, or fourth parts of the question. This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #2

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #2: Rubric Score 1

Annotation: This response demonstrates little application of a reasonable strategy. The student describes the change in value of a computer (The first year the computer costs $180 less than when it first came out. After the first year the cost goes down by $210 each year). The student has not responsed to the first, second, or third parts of the question. The student states that the equation would not be a good prediction model and the justification supports the solution (because you would go into negative numbers and the computer company would owe you money). This response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #3

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #3: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response demonstrates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. The representation in the form of an equation is correct (y= -201x+809). The student has not responded to the second or third parts of the question. The student states that the equation would not be a good prediction model and the justification supports the solution (the computars value will be in the negitives and you can't have a negitive amount of money when you are talking about value). This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #4

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #4: Rubric Score 2

Annotation: This response demonstrates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy. An equation is not provided. A slope is not given but the contextual meaning is complete (how much the value decreases each year). The age of a computer valued at $300 is correct (about 2½ years old) and the explanation supports the solution (At 3 years old its $200 and at 2 years it was about $400 so $300 is in the middle of 2 and 3 years and that's 2½). The student states that the equation would not be a good prediction model and the justification supports the solution (according to the equation and graph you will have to pay someone to buy your computer. The computer will be worth a negative amount). This response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #5

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #5: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response demonstrates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to some correct solutions within the context of the problem. The representation in the form of an equation is correct (809-201x =y). The slope of the equation, with the inclusion of the variable x, is essentially correct (201x). The contextual meaning is complete (a computer loses 201$ value each year). The age of a computer valued at $300 is correct (about 2½ years), but an explanation is not provided. The student states that the equation would not be a good prediction model and the justification supports the solution (its reached negative by then). This response demonstrates a clear understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #6

image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #6: Rubric Score 3

Annotation: This response demonstrates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to some correct solutions within the context of the problem. The representation in the form of an equation is correct (y= -201x+809). The slope of the equation is correct (-201) and the contextual meaning is complete (it represents the amount that the value decreases for each year the computer ages). The age of a computer valued at $300 is correct (about 2.5 years old). The explanation supports the solution (I determined this by plugging in 300 for y [value] and solving for x [number of years old] to find that when the computer is worth $300 it is about 2.5 years old). The student states that the equation would be a good prediction model. Although the justification is feasible (since it has decreased at a steady rate for 3 years, it is reasonable to assume that it will continue at the same rate. So if we plug in 6 for x, and solve for y, it is reasonable to assume that we will end up with the likely value in 6 years), the student is incorrect because this strategy would result in a negative outcome. This response demonstrates a clear understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #7

image of student response
image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #7: Rubric Score 4

Annotation: This response demonstrates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to correct solutions within the context of the problem. The representation in the form of an equation is correct (y= -201x+809). The slope of the equation is correct (-201) and the contextual meaning is complete (It means that each year the value of the computer drops $201). The age of a computer valued at $300 is correct (2.53 years old) and the explanation is clearly presented and fully developed. The student replaces y in the equation with 300 and solves for x. The student states that the equation would not be a good prediction model and the justification is fully developed. The student replaces x in the equation with 6, solves for y and writes (according to the line of best fit the computer would be worth negative amount of money). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Anchor Paper #8

image of student response
image of student response

Score for Anchor Paper #8: Rubric Score 5

Annotation: This response demonstrates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to correct solutions within the context of the problem. The representation in the form of an equation is correct (y= -201x+809). The slope of the equation is correct (-201) and the contextual meaning is complete (the value of a computer goes down $201 per year). The age of a computer valued at $300 is correct (two years and a half) and the explanation is clearly presented and fully developed. The student replaces y in the equation with 300, solves for x and writes (I put in the cost of the computer for y because its the total cost. Then subtracted the 809 + divided that by -201). The student states that the equation would not be a good prediction model and the justification is fully developed. The student replaces x in the equation with 6, solves for y and writes (its showing the number as a negative and you cannot pay negative amount of money). The student provides further justification by replacing y in the equation with 0, solving for x and stating (After 4 years, the computer is worth nothing. After that, its all nothing). This response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.


Extended Constructed Response (ECR) Rubric

Print: Scoring Rubric (pdf)
Score 4

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that leads to a correct solution in the context of the problem. The representations are correct. The explanation and/or justification is logically sound, clearly presented, fully developed, supports the solution, and does not contain significant mathematical errors. The response demonstrates a complete understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 3

The response indicates application of a reasonable strategy that may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are essentially correct. The explanation and/or justification is generally well developed, feasible, and supports the solution. The response demonstrates a clear understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 2

The response indicates an incomplete application of a reasonable strategy that may or may not lead to a correct solution. The representations are fundamentally correct. The explanation and/or justification supports the solution and is plausible, although it may not be well developed or complete. The response demonstrates a conceptual understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 1

The response indicates little or no application of a reasonable strategy. It may or may not have the correct answer. The representations are incomplete or missing. The explanation and/or justification reveals serious flaws in reasoning. The explanation and/or justification may be incomplete or missing. The response demonstrates a minimal understanding and analysis of the problem.

Score 0

The response is completely incorrect or irrelevant. There may be no response, or the response may state, “I don't know.”

Explanation refers to the student using the language of mathematics to communicate how the student arrived at the solution.

Justification refers to the student using mathematical principles to support the reasoning used to solve the problem or to demonstrate that the solution is correct. This could include the appropriate definitions, postulates and theorems.

Essentially correct representations may contain a few minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Fundamentally correct representations may contain several minor errors such as missing labels, reversed axes, or scales that are not uniform.

Last Revised 8/16/00

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Resources for 3.2.2:
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